China 737 Crash- Murder-Suicide?

Why we don’t have an answer- Sensitive investigations

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The crash of a jetliner is horrific- so many lives lost in an instant. There are often early clues about what may have caused a crash, but they are rarely conclusive. It often takes time and hard investigative work to find the flaws in engineering, piloting, weather, or other causes to determine why a jet crashed.

When a China Eastern Airlines 737 crashed March 21, 2022, we saw those immediate clues. Radar tracking of the aircraft showed it made a dramatic nose-down dive from cruising altitude. It leveled a bit for less than 30 seconds, but then nosed-down again into the ground, killing all 132 on board.

Radar track of the China Eastern Airlines provided by Flightradar24.

RADAR EVIDENCE

That radar data on its own could point to an intentional downing of the aircraft. We’ve seen that before. The co-pilot took down an EgyptAir jet in 1999, and there was the German Wings co-pilot who did the same in 2015. The radar data from the China Eastern crash suggests the same fate, and that was pointed out in the first couple of days after the crash.

China’s preliminary report, required to be filed within 30 days of a crash, gave very few clues about what happened.

The core section of one of the recorders from China Eastern Airlines 737-800. (Credit: CCTV)

Then in May, the Wall Street Journal reported that flight data (from the flight data recorder) shows that someone pushed the controls to start the nose-dive according to “a person who is familiar with American officials’ preliminary assessment.”

CHINA RESPONDS

This drew an immediate response from the Chinese through the state-directed newspaper/website Global Times. The Global Times quoted the Chinese aviation investigative body (CAAC) as saying it had been assured by the US National Transportation Safety Board, which is a party to the investigation, that it had not released the information. The Global Times suggested that “refuted” the claim of pilot murder-suicide. It does not.

Recovery crews working the China Eastern Airlines 737-800 crash scene. (Credit: Global TImes)

The investigation into this crash highlights the problems and sensitivities when many parties are involved. International rules call for the state wherein the crash occurred to lead the investigation. But those rules also say the plane maker and certification authorities should be invited to join the investigation. Boeing, the FAA, and the NTSB are parties to the Chinese investigation.

The Chinese government owns the majority share of China Eastern Airlines. So the owner of the airline is investigating its own employees and their actions. It’s not an unusual situation around the world.

One of the black box cores as it was found at the crash site. (Credit: VCG/VCG via Getty Images)

Both black boxes were damaged in the crash and both were sent to Washington so the NTSB could “read them out.” The leak to the Wall Street Journal likely came after the data recorder was read out.

The NTSB was quick to assure the Chinese that the information didn’t come from the board. The reason is trust. “We want them to trust enough to bring those recorders to our labs to read them out. It just takes one incident to break trust,” says former Chair of the NTSB Deborah Hersman.

SENSITIVE INVESTIGATION

Even though US investigators may have a very good idea what happened to the 737, the Chinese are the lead and are responsible for the release of all pertinent information.

Hersman says we can learn much from what the Chinese are not saying. “The fact that they are not saying something right now really is telling us they haven’t yet found anything important enough to address all aircraft that are like this,” she said.

Recovery crews stand in silence for a moment of remembrance at the crash site. (Credit: CNS/AFP via Getty Images)

In fact, China did not ground the 737-800 and is flying the aircraft today. If there was a significant safety issue with the aircraft the FAA or NTSB could have issued safety bulletins.

"TRUTH WILL COME OUT"

As one veteran investigator once told me, “the truth will come out with time.” Hersman says, “If for some reason the Chinese come up with a probable cause and the US does not agree with that probable cause they have the ability to submit an alternative view.”

Former NTSB Chair Deborah Hersman discusses the sensitivities of multi-party investigations.

That has happened in the past. For now, US investigators are patiently waiting for the Chinese to complete their investigation, which could easily go into next year. In the interim they will continue to collaborate and build trust to ensure aviation safety.

(Cover photo credit: Xinhua)