It was twilight and it was a spectacular launch of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy. The big rocket’s first test flight was five years ago. This weekend’s launch was only the fourth time since the test that it has carried paid cargo to space. That will change this year with at least four more flights.
The Heavy is made up of three Falcon 9 rockets strapped together. It is a heavy-lift vehicle built for large loads/payloads. This mission carried a big satellite into orbit for the Space Force.
You may remember that first flight of the Falcon Heavy. Elon Musk used his company’s test to launch his Tesla Roadster, complete with a manikin in the driver’s seat, on a trajectory that would take it by Mars. Musk wants to colonize Mars.
The Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy are proof that Musk can deliver on his promises by building reusable rockets that reduce the cost to reach orbit. That may be one reason why NASA gave SpaceX the contract to land Americans on the Moon more than 50 years after Apollo 11. Musk is building his Starship, which he wants to carry people to Mars, as a Moon lander for NASA.
The Starship has not reached orbit yet. That could come next month if SpaceX is ready and it obtains a license from the FAA. Despite not getting to space yet, SpaceX has told NASA that it plans to conduct an unmanned landing on the Moon late this year. It says it will then be ready to carry astronauts to the lunar surface by the end of 2024. That would be less than two years from first orbit to first human landing on the Moon.
Wait a minute. SpaceX says it will be ready for a manned Moon landing in 2024, but NASA says it won’t be ready until 2025. Why don’t these two timelines match up?
On the NASA side, the agency says it has a lot of systems to get ready including the capsule and the suits. NASA has been saying for a while the timeline between the first test mission called Artemis 1, which splashed down successfully last month, and Artemis 2 will be two years. That mean Artemis 2 will launch in the fall or winter of 2024. Artemis 2 is the first manned mission of the Orion capsule, which will fly by the Moon without a landing.
It will take another year for Artemis 3 to take off with a crew of four for a return to the lunar surface. Two of astronauts will ride the SpaceX Starship to the surface of the Moon. Why so long? NASA was told to save money in the development of the Orion capsule and take some of the avionics boxes out of Artemis 1 and put them in the Artemis 2 capsule. NASA complains this will cost it about a year.
The other reason to push out to 2025 is that NASA just recently released the contract to build the new spacesuit that will be used for moonwalks. It is unlikely those suits will be ready for a significantly earlier launch.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson says he asks all the time if SpaceX is meeting its benchmarks. He says he’s being told that not only is SpaceX is meeting those requirements, the company is, “in some cases exceeding,” the benchmarks.
Nelson says he has visited SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas facility and says it is, “a sight to behold,” as the company builds Starships and, “big boosters.” The NASA Administrator shared more information than SpaceX has. He says the company plans a few test flights in Texas before moving to Cape Canaveral.
The SpaceX timeline, according to Nelson, is an unmanned landing on the Moon near the end of 2023, less than a year from now. Then, SpaceX says it can carry astronauts to the lunar surface a year later at the end of 2024. Again, that is a year before NASA will be ready.
But, and this is a big but, Nelson acknowledged, “slips” in the timeline are always possible. He added that SpaceX has been, “quite impressive” developing earlier systems (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Dragon capsule). SpaceX didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Elon Musk has been known for optimistic timelines and predictions that don’t always come true (full autonomous driving). The good news for SpaceX- they have a year leeway in development of the lander, since NASA won’t be ready.