The state of American aviation and airlines
With summer travel approaching, is the system safe?
“What is going on with all these jetliner close calls?” That is a question I have been asked several times over the past couple months. We saw jetliners crossing an active runway as another jet was taking off. That’s called a runway incursion. There were also close calls involving a jet nearly landing on another one as it was taking off.
The question about aviation safety resulted in Congressional hearings, an FAA Safety Summit, and directives to airlines and pilots. Each of the incidents appear to involve the same issue- human error. There is no single thread of cause. Some incidents may have resulted from pilots who were distracted, or Air Traffic Controllers who made a mistake.
The result of the summit and hearings is that the ultimate cause of these safety concerns could be the pandemic. The acting Administrator of the FAA, Billy Nolen, suggested as much a bit more than a week ago.”Vigilance can never take a day off,” he told CNBC. Then, he added, “let’s get back to the basics, dust off the rust if there is any.”
Nolen is suggesting that the severe cutback in flights during the pandemic meant that the skills of those working in aviation may have atrophied a bit and those skills need to be sharpened.
“I don't think there was just like one magic bullet that's just going to ultimately solve all these issues. But I think it's, obviously, it's staffing issue, too. I mean, the FAA is understaffed,” said Ross Feinstein, a former communicator for TSA and American Airlines and a keen observer of the aviation business (Conversation here).
He’s referring to the other personnel issue at work here. While some skills may have become a bit rusty, the airlines have been dealing with their own staffing shortages. Airlines offered early retirement to pilots and other workers. When flying started to return, up 30% last year, the airlines were short workers.
“You had a lot of people that took early outs or packages to retire early. Of course, demand ramped back up. Everyone's like, oh, we need more pilots. We need more flight attendants…So you do a lot more junior people across the board and you've had to hire up really quickly,” Feinstein said.
Feinstein suggests this problem was self-inflicted by the airlines at the beginning of the pandemic. The US government offered the “Payroll Protection Program” to allow companies to hold onto critical employees. “The intention of the law was to keep everyone on payroll active ready to go. But of course, all the airlines said hey, wait a second, we can take the money and simultaneously get these people to be off payroll and actually preserve more cash for ourselves,” Feinstein said.
The airlines have added nearly 100,000 new workers to deal with the growing demand for flying. That takes us back to the question- “is flying safe?” “It's very safe, aviation, flying is safer than walking,” Feinstein proclaimed, adding, “people are hearing about these close calls. But flying is still the safest mode of transportation out there.”
The airlines have returned to levels of flyers not seen since 2019. Airlines for America (A4A), the trade association, believes during the current spring break period, more Americans will fly than in 2019. A4A predicted 2.6 million flyers every day. There have been no major meltdowns for the airlines during spring break travel so far.
What does that mean for the coming summer flying season? The airlines have smoothed their operations and added new workers, but there is something they can’t control. “The weather issue I think is going to be the what's going to compound all these problems this summer. And flights are going to be completely full… everything is going to be at 100% load factor. You're not going to see empty seats- people want to travel,” Feinstein predicts.
The pandemic problems may now be fading as the rust is dusted off, and you really want to fly.
I guess I'm just a little confused. "Some incidents may have resulted from pilots who were distracted, or Air Traffic Controllers who made a mistake." This sounds fundamentally dangerous and doesn't provide anyone with the hope that it will be easily remedied. Glad that you're telling the truth, but the lack of analysis of this statement doesn't lend itself to trust. Then this-- "The result of the summit and hearings is that the ultimate cause of these safety concerns could be the pandemic." Rather a tepid admission, no? It absolutely was the pandemic. Full stop. No question. Why? Because, "the severe cutback in flights during the pandemic meant that the skills of those working in aviation may have atrophied a bit." Hm. Feinstein hedging the old statements there. "Atrophied a bit?" Oh--thanks. OK--back to work everyone. And then, from the now infamous, "oops, did I say that out loud" button... “The intention of the law was to keep everyone on payroll active ready to go. But of course, all the airlines said hey, wait a second, we can take the money and simultaneously get these people to be off payroll and actually preserve more cash for ourselves,” Feinstein said." Correct. And that's just the airlines. And that's now been admitted. And then he says, "but, hey--it's really safe! Only question is the weather..." What? WHAT?! Weather is always the question--and it's got nothing to do with safety, or at least--not in the way he's thinking. Why, did the weather somehow speed up and get to where it's going faster, making it harder for pilots to, well--get a weather update? No, of course not. So, in fact--weather is not the issue at all. It has zero to do with anything. The only issue here is this: The illegal, absurd lockdowns forced people away from their freedoms because, like serfs, they listened to an illegal and immoral govt. that handed them down. Big business (in this case, airlines) saw an opportunity to get rid of staff, save money on that side, and take big govt. payouts on the other side, which had the necessary effect of having the airlines and its personnel go along with the illegal govt. actions. I'm a fan of aviation--I love it. But it took the easy way out, as did so many during this upside down time. Caveat emptor.