Trump-Musk and the Starliner
What the breakup may mean for commercial space
(Credit: The White House)
The Trump-Musk breakup was quick, a bit earlier than expected, and left social postings scattered across the internet. In SpaceX language for a rocket exploding in flight, it was a RUD- rapid unscheduled disassembly.
In a RUD debris falls randomly from the air. This bad breakup has indeed shaken business plans, changing the atmosphere of commercial and government space programs dramatically.
A couple weeks ago some players were worried that the cozy relationship between the two men would favor Musk in space, EVs, autonomous driving, AI, and satellite internet constellations. That appears to have changed dramatically.
In the real time social media postings we saw the President threaten to take away Musk’s government contracts. Musk responded saying he would decommission his Dragon capsule, a move that would hold astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) hostage. His spacecraft are the main transport to low Earth orbit.
The landscape has indeed changed quickly even if Musk now says he “went too far” in his posts.
Debris from Starship Test Flight 8 (Credit: @GeneDoctorB)
Reporting suggests the breakup between Musk and POTUS came about because the tech leader was displeased with the “Big Bill” the House passed. Musk’s Government Efficiency effort was looking for ways to cut spending and narrow deficits. But, the “Big Bill” balloons the deficit and debt over the next decade. More narrowly, Musk was reportedly unhappy with the elimination of EV subsidies (think Tesla), and the withdrawal of his friend Jared Isaacman as the nominee to head NASA.
Remarkably, the breakup and back and forth was answered by NASA just a day later. The agency took the unusual step of releasing a statement about the alternative space capsule to go to ISS, the troubled Boeing Starliner.
“NASA is assessing the earliest potential for a Starliner flight to the International Space Station in early 2026, pending system certification and resolution of Starliner’s technical issues.”
NASA says it issued that statement based on media inquires. But it is exactly what the head of human space flight for NASA said weeks earlier to the media. So let’s go back a few months.
In the winter I was planning to write about whether Boeing wants to get out of the space business. The first comments from Boeing’s new CEO about the troubled company focused only on the jetliner business. I am not even sure he mentioned space or the Starliner. NASA wasn’t saying much either about the Boeing spacecraft. Some wondered if Starliner would fly again. Would Boeing throw in the towel?
All that changed in February when that NASA executive, talking about the SpaceX Dragon flight to bring home the Starliner crew, said the agency is looking for a new date to launch Starliner again.
That was news. Boeing wants to continue with the capsule and its NASA contract and NASA wants another operational spacecraft. “We really want a crew capable vehicle,” NASA’s Steve Stitch told reporters.
To get Starliner certified and carrying astronauts, two major problems that popped up during the crewed test flight must be resolved.
Thrusters- While Starliner had docked with the space station during its uncrewed flight without major issues, there were issues on the crewed flight. The thrusters overheated and some even were taken offline by the spacecraft’s computer. Boeing says it is insulating and mitigating the heating issues.
Helium leak- Helium is used to pressurize tanks. It is a small molecule that likes to leak if it can. Boeing had a problem with a manifold that delivers helium to propulsion systems. The company believes there is a problem with a teflon seal which it can fix.
In fact, the new Boeing CEO is bullish about Starliner. In late April, Kelly Ortberg told CNBC, “It's pretty straightforward engineering work. We know what the problems were, and we're making corrective actions.” Ortberg seemed confident the issues and corrective actions will satisfy NASA.
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg on the future of Starliner. (Credit: CNBC)
NASA’s Stitch said back in February that despite the thruster and helium issues, “the rest of the vehicle performed really well.”
The strongest endorsement of the Starliner came from one of the astronauts who has to wait eight months to get home because of Starliner issues. I asked Commander Butch Wilmore what his message to Boeing is about the Starliner, he said, “If you understand that the spacecraft that we have now, we got Dragon, we have Orion, and we have Starliner. In my opinion, Starliner has the most capability.”
Wilmore talked about the various modes astronauts can use to fly Starliner. “There's no spacecraft that has all of this capability. I mean, I jokingly said a couple of times before we launched that I could literally do a barrel roll over the top of the space station. I would never do that, but you can in this spacecraft. It is very, very capable.”
NASA and Boeing are now testing fixes to the two problems and will decide whether the spacecraft will be certified and fly a crew early next year. I would say that is likely. Starliner may join the fleet next year carrying NASA astronauts once a year to ISS.
(Credit: NASA)
Still, we are left with the bigger question. Does Boeing want to get out of the space business? There are challenges ahead.
Boeing’s contract to operate the International Space Station (ISS) should be coming to an end. The low-earth orbiting station is expected to end its life in five years (maybe a few more).
Boeing and Lockheed build the big Space Launch Systems (SLS) rocket that is supposed to carry astronauts back to the Moon. The joint venture company has been floating the idea of selling the rocket system, if they can find anyone to buy it.
The space industry is being shaken up. Some of it is personal between the President and the richest man in the world. Some by the longterm space players deciding if they still want to play in this space.
Seeing as SpaceX blew up another rocket just last night, it's pretty clear that relying solely on a company that has generated FAR more failure than success is not a good idea. Nor is relying on a company led by a mercurial gazillionaire who has already threatened to pull the plug. Nor is relying on a company (Boeing) whose string of recent failures (737MAX, Starliner, replacement Air Force 1) is almost as long as SpaceX, and certainly more deadly.
I worked at NASA when the shuttle was being retired and there was talk about how to get back to the moon and beyond. Back then, the contracting companies worked FOR NASA. Final decisions came from the best minds the agency had on staff. Now, the decisions come from these contracting companies. It's an upside down process. NASA no longer leads, but is merely a consumer of whatever machines these companies give it. None of the current promises about when we will return to the moon will come true. Mars will continue to be in the domain of robots for many years to come.
I think they will all stay in the game. They are all capable companies, and the potential income and the prestige are pretty high. Certainly, we need more than a single provider! If Trump would shut up, and Musk would shut up, there could still be hope. Not sure either of them can though, and that's a problem going forward, in the near future anyway.