Moon landing delay?

NASA hints at lunar trouble for SpaceX

(Credit: NASA)

The US has proudly proclaimed its plans to go back to the Moon by landing the first woman and person of color on the lunar surface. The momentous return landing was going to be next year, 2024. NASA realized that timeline, set during the Trump Administration, was not going to work. There are just too many new systems to build. The mission was pushed to late 2025. Officially, NASA says it is sticking with that date. Reading between the lines reveals a very different story. NASA is likely to admit that another delay is coming.

Recent comments by NASA officials suggest the crewed landing if moving to 2026. There may be a number of factors forcing another delay. A big reason is Elon Musk’s company SpaceX. NASA says SpaceX, which is providing the lander for the astronauts, is having trouble and is behind schedule.

Starship on the surface of the Moon in an artist rendering. (Credit: NASA-SpaceX)

STORY CHANGED

This story has changed a lot in just seven months. Back in January, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told the NASA Advisory Council he had recently visited SpaceX’s Texas facility, known as Starbase. Nelson said he was assured the Starship would be ready to land on the Moon in 2024, a year before NASA even planned its crewed landing mission.

Then came the first flight of Starship in April. It got off the pad and flew for a few minutes before a self-destruct command blew up the spacecraft. There were plenty of problems, but SpaceX said it learned a lot.

First flight for the fully integrated Starship which ended with a self-destruct command. (Credit: SpaceX Full video here.)

That brings us to this month, August 2023. NASA held a briefing with the astronauts set to fly around the Moon for the first crewed mission of the NASA Orion capsule. While all those blue-flight-suited astronauts were sitting with the NASA brass, it was Jim Free, the Associate Administrator for Exploration Systems, who got the majority of questions. Why? Because while he said NASA is holding all its contractors to the December 2025 landing mission date, he then revealed there are issues. A lot of issues. SpaceX has now provided NASA with an “updated schedule.” 

NASA ADAPTS

Translation: SpaceX is behind in its development and won’t make the December 2025 deadline. The company probably wants to renegotiate the contract for the delivery date of the, “human landing system.” It’s likely SpaceX will have to give up something to get NASA to agree to move the delivery to 2026.

Artemis II crew which will orbit the Moon recently visited the Orion capsule they will travel in. (Credit: NASA)

Free said Artemis III, the mission always thought to land astronauts on the Moon, may now fly, “a different mission.” This is NASA saying it wants to fly astronauts and learn more about its Orion capsule with missions orbiting the Moon while SpaceX finishes building the Starship lander. Basically, if SpaceX isn’t ready we will go test other systems and missions.

That is a big acknowledgement by NASA that not all is going as planned with the Artemis program. When Free was asked what SpaceX needs to do, he said, “They need to launch. They need to launch multiple times.” He said his concern about Musk’s company remains, “they haven’t launched.”

SpaceX prepares for second launch of its second test Starship. (Credit: Twitter/X)

SpaceX may fly its Starship for a second time in the next couple of months. But that is just the beginning. The Starship not only needs to get into orbit, it also has to prove something that has never been done in space. Starship will use its fuel to get to orbit. To get to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit, it will need a fill-up of fuel. SpaceX will have to prove a, “ship-to-ship,” refueling process. Starship also needs to make a successful uncrewed landing on the Moon.  

DELAYED TO 2026?

During the briefing with reporters, Free would not come out and say, in direct language, that the timeline for a landing will move to 2026. He just suggested that the contract with SpaceX may have to be renegotiated for a landing date.

(Credit: NASA- Full briefing here)

A HINT BECOMES A… PROBABLY

All of this is a bit surprising because just a couple days earlier, Free told two groups of space engineers when discussing a lunar landing date, “you can think about that slipping probably into ’26.”

It’s not just SpaceX that may delay this landing on the Moon. There are other elements that could cause a postponement. More on that in the next Full Throttle.